Warfare Reimagined
The Spread of Autonomy into our Most Combative Industry
In February 2019, the city of Bangalore hosted its biennial air show and aviation exhibition Aero India.
Thousands flocked to witness the aeronautical feats of F-16 pilots and intricate formations of helicopter squadrons. Static aircraft hung from wires and pillars throughout the interior of the Yelahanka Air Force Station, the products of over 400 defence contractors and aerospace companies.
In amongst the bustle of military personnel and imposing aircraft, one could be forgiven for overlooking a small, sleek drone unveiled at the Israel Aerospace Industries stall, the Mini-Harpy.
Commonly referred to as the ‘kamikaze’ or ‘suicide drone’, the weapon can be launched into a target area where it lingers for up to two hours detecting threats with electro-optical sensors. Once found, the system locks in and dives on its target, the eight-kilogram warhead attached to its nose exploding on impact.
What set this particular system apart from others in Bangalore that day was that the Mini-Harpy was exhibited as a fully autonomous machine. Meaning there is little to no human involvement in its process of targeting and eliminating a threat.
While the Mini-Harpy might appear modest, its impressive capabilities are indicative of what some are calling the third revolution in warfare . Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) may transform conflict just as consequentially as did gunpowder and nuclear arms.
As these systems evolve, international humanitarian law risks irrelevance as human-on-human conflict is replaced by machine instigated violence.
The multi-faceted and ubiquitous nature of autonomous systems may make it difficult for slow-moving international legislators to regulate.
Autonomy: A Pervasive Design in Australian Industries
AOS Group is not involved in the development of weapons*
AOS Group is not involved in the development of weapons*
What's Spurring Militaries to Invest in LAWS?
Computers arguably exceed any humans’ ability to intake data and problem-solve. This edge, argues Pentagon defence expert Paul Scharre, would provide military operations with greater speed, agility, accuracy, persistence, reach, coordination and mass.
The financial incentive also looms large for the defence industry, they may have large budgets, but militaries can be frugal. One of the greatest cost factors in manned aircraft is a pilot’s need for continuous practice. Unmanned systems, however lose none of their operational capabilities, even as they lie dormant for extended periods of time.
It should also be noted that the accuracy of AWS and reduction of military personnel on the ground could also mean less body bags returning home. Although, the origins of the machine gun and nuclear bomb were also prompted by similar beliefs.
The RoBattle developed by Israel Aerospace Industries. Can autonomously perform ambushes, combat intelligence, target acquisition & reconnaissance and advanced attack capabilities.
The Phalanx Close-In Weapons System manufactured by General Dynamics Corporation. Capable of autonomous search, detection, tracking, engagement and kill assessment functions.
The STM-Kargu. A rotary wing kamikaze drone designed for counter-insurgency. A United Nations security report found combatants in Libya were "hunted down and remotely engaged" by the STM-Kargu and other LAWS in March 2020, an historical first.
A Double Edged Sword
A Rand Corporation report on conflict escalation noted that the efficiency of such weapons could actually pose a threat to global security.
“As the speed of military action in conflict involving the use of AWS…begins to surpass the speed of political decisionmaking, leaders could lose the ability to manage the crisis and with it the ability to control escalation.”
The tension of suffering decisive strikes at machine speeds could prompt state or non-state actors to escalate conflict in anticipation of critical manoeuvres from the opposing side.
Autonomous weaponry could seed a transformation in the realm of unconventional warfare too.
Take the Islamic States’ drone program, which reportedly merged sophisticated commercial technology and other technological add-ons to develop highly capable weapons.
General Raymond A. Thomas of US Special Operations Command found that one of the greatest issues faced in Syria was “an adaptive enemy who for a while enjoyed tactical superiority in the air…in the form of commercially available drones”.
Powerful militaries could have the most to lose with AWS considering inexpensive drones can swarm and disable expensive platforms with practically zero risk for insurgents.
"Politically Unacceptable and Morally Repugnant"
- Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres
Still, what’s garnering the most attention globally on the topic of autonomous weaponry is not the technicality or the geopolitical issues that come with them, but the ethical dilemma they pose.
As humans relieve themselves from the active use of force in areas of conflict it becomes increasingly difficult to apply the rules of war.
Humans understand behavioural cues, they can effectively gauge a balance between achieving a goal and inflicting harm, most importantly they can be punished for wrong-doing. A machines capacity to do any of these things is distinctly limited creating an accountability gap for international humanitarian law.
Thompson Chengeta, a European Fellow on Drone Violence and Artificial Intelligence, noted that, “where the individual soldier is replaced by an autonomous weapon system – a bloodless robot with no sense of self-preservation, fear of prosecution after the fact or punishment by commander – an important part of deterrence is watered down.”
The United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) met in 2013 to discuss the use and regulation of LAWS, it represented the first meaningful effort to control such systems.
Since then, meetings have been held semi-annually and 97 countries have expressed their concerns over autonomous weaponry.
After 6 years, in 2019 the GGE recommended 11 guiding principles on AWS which were adopted by the CCW. However, little movement has been made in the way of hard regulation and protocols.
A new treaty on AWS was abandoned in August 2019 after the United States and Russia labelled it as “premature”. Decisions at the CCW are made by consensus, meaning even a single state is able to block any potential protocol.
In the absence of restrictions, the development and adoption of lethal autonomous weapons is likely to evolve at a much faster and unruly rate as competing states vie for superiority with little consideration for human rights or geo-political stability.
The evolution of autonomous systems may be inevitable, but with conscientious boundaries put in place that evolution could look a lot less like a race and more like progress.
Photo by Jonathan Ansel Moy de Vitry on Unsplash
Photo by Jonathan Ansel Moy de Vitry on Unsplash
