Oil, Cars and Fentanyl(?)
A analysis of fentanyl flow from Canada.
The fentanyl hunt
Although the number of fentanyl related overdose deaths declined from the 2023 total, the figure remains greater than 400% higher than the 2015 total.
Because of this, fentanyl was a central talking point during the 2024 US presidential election. Both President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vowed to take an aggressive approach to America’s fentanyl crisis.
After winning the election, President Trump began his attack before even taking office.
The Canadian fentanyl pipeline
Mexico and China have long been labeled as fentanyl sources, but Canada was a new addition, and they quickly attempted to shut down President Trump’s assertion.
“I will say that Canada is not a significant source of fentanyl in the United States,” said Aaron McCrorie, vice-president of Canada’s intelligence and enforcement, and the Canada Border Services Agency, in a Nov. 21 Canada Public Safety Committee hearing.
President Trump restated his assertion from the platform of his first press conference of his second presidency.
February 21 press conference. Video source: The White House
February 21 press conference. Video source: The White House
"I will say that Canada is not a significant source of fentanyl in the United States."
"The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive."
But which of these contrasting statements is right?
"The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive."
Determining who is correct depends on semantics.
What is considered "massive?"
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines massive as: “forming or consisting of a large mass. "
According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection website, 81.7 lbs (37.058 kg) of fentanyl were seized at the U.S.-Canada border from January 2022 through April 2025.
The 81.7 lbs of fentanyl at the Canada/US border from January 2022 to April 2025 accounts for 0.12% of fentanyl seized at American borders over that time.
U.S. Border officials seized 1,580.9 lbs of fentanyl at coastal and interior borders from January 2022 to April 2025, 2.37% of fentanyl seized at American borders in that period.
The 65,088.3 lbs of fentayl seized at the Mexican/U.S. border accounted for 97.51% of fentanyl seized at American boarders from January 2022 to April 2025.
A 2 mg dose of fentanyl, which is equivalent to five grains of salt, could be lethal.
The fentanyl seized at the Canadian border from January 2022 to April 2025 could have potentially led to 18,529,248 overdose deaths.
But 18,529,248 is minuscule when compared to 15,138,851,500 (the number of potential overdose deaths from fentanyl seized at all U.S. borders).
The CBP attributes 0.12% of fentanyl seizures to the Canadian border, but that may be an overstatement.
The largest month for fentanyl seizures came in July 2024, when the CBP reported seizing 14.83 lbs of fentanyl at the border near Spokane, Washington, greater than 18% of the 81.7 lbs.
An investigative story from The Globe and Mail from Feb. 27 throws this figure under scrutiny, as they report that the abnormally high amount of fentanyl seized at the Spokane border during that month is largely being attributed to a June 28, 2024, arrest where three men in Spokane found in possession of 68,000 pills of fentanyl.
According to The Globe and Mail story, court documents and the reporter’s investigations found no connection between the three men and Canada/the Canadian border.
Although the CBP and Drug Enforcement Administration have not offically recognized that they included the incident in the 14.83 lbs reportedly seized at the northern border, The Globe and Mail’s report accounts for the abnormal quantity of fentanyl allegedly seized at the Canada-U.S. border in July 2024, and brings other reported seizures into question.
The second largest month for fentanyl seizures came in April 2025, when the CBP reported seizing 12.54 lbs of fentanyl at the Spokane border (15% of the three year total).
“The fentanyl seizure amounts for April 2025 on CBP.gov accredited to Spokane Sector were made by Spokane Sector agents on joint task forces,” wrote Jason Givens, CBO Washington regional press officer, when asked for more information about the April drug seizures. “Due to the law enforcement sensitive nature of the task forces, we are unable to provide specific details of the seizures. Fentanyl is an extremely dangerous drug and a scourge upon our communities. Whether it is seized at the immediate border or through targeted enforcement operations via task forces, the results are the same — Border Patrol agents help prevent these deadly substances from taking the lives of our friends, family, colleagues, and community members.”
Similar to the the Spokane sector in July 2024, the DEA announced on May 8 that they completed an operation in Spokane that saw them arrest 21 individuals under federal drug and firearm charges. The DEA claims to have seized 5.5 lbs of fentanyl powder and 16,000 fentanyl pills.
No public documents connect the May 8 seizure and to those attributed to the northern border Spokane sector in April.
President Trump points to the 2024 uptick in fentanyl seizures at the northern border, 42.89 lbs, as a key indicator of fentanyl flow increasing from Canada; however, without the falsely reported July data from the Spokane border, that number falls to 28.06 lbs in 2024, and 66.87 lbs from January 2022 to April 2025.
Slowing the flow
Despite the exaggeration of the flow of fentanyl entering the U.S. via the northern border, President Trump’s assertion drew a response from the Canadian government.
In an effort to appease President Trump, Canada appointed Kevin Brosseau as Fentanyl Czar.
Brosseau’s fentanyl czar responsibilities revolve around coordinating with all levels of the Canadian government and U.S. representatives to help combat the production and flow of fentanyl.
“Canada’s Fentanyl Czar is fully committed to a comprehensive, whole-of-Canada approach to advancing the country’s fight against fentanyl,” according to the fentanyl czar homepage on the Canadian government’s website. “Since the position’s creation in February 2025, the Czar has been actively engaging authorities at all levels to help protect our communities, build our resilience and punish the criminals who profit from this deadly drug.”
Since appointing Brosseau, the Canadian government has launched a joint force with the U.S. to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering; authorized additional anti-fentanyl enforcement actions from the Canada Border Services Agency and Royal Canadian Mounted Police; government has listed seven cartels as terrorist entities and made other steps to fight fentanyl production/distribution.
But the question remains, is President Trump correct?
That depends on what’s worth the cost of tarnishing "one of the closest and most extensive" relationships in the world?
Is 81.7 lbs worth it?
Is 18,529,248 deaths worth it?
Is 0.12% worth it?
For President Trump, it is.
